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NJ Hunter / New Jersey Hunting / How To / How accurate are deer harvest stats?
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:01 PM
I see the Div F&W website has posted the harvest results by zone for 2006-2007.  Interesting numbers for some zones.  I often wonder how accurate their numbers are?  I know these are 'harvest' numbers which would lead one to believe these are the ones legally checked in.  What are your guesses in the total deer killed per zone (including legally harvested deer, those deer killed but not check-in, those deer wounded and never recovered, etc.)?  My guess would be that for every deer checked in there is 1 deer not checked in and therefore not part of the stats for the state biologists.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:11 PM
not very
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:17 PM
Quote:
My guess would be that for every deer checked in there is 1 deer not checked in and therefore not part of the stats for the state biologists

In the early seaon, where guys have to shoot does (EAB), I know for a fact that many does are checked in several times.  This might offset the number of deer that are shot and not checked
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:18 PM
This thread is stupid... Get off the Division's back.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:23 PM
Quote:
not very


SIR MAYBE YOU SHOULD GO AND ASK THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE TO ENTER ALL THOSE SHEETS BY HAND AND ASK THEM HOW ACCURATE THEY ARE I AM QUITE SURE YOU WILL GET SOME INTERESTING RESPONSES BUT THEN THEY SERVE THE PUBLIC SO THERE ANSWERS MIGHT BE RESTRAINED
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:23 PM
Quote:
This thread is stupid... Get off the Division's back.

Where in this thread did anyone say that it was the divisions fault for any possible deviations in stats?

Im pretty sure that someone was simply asking people opinions of how accurate those stats might be.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:24 PM
Quote:
Where in this thread did anyone say that it was the divisions fault for any possible deviations in stats?

Im pretty sure that someone was simply asking people opinions of how accurate those stats might be.


Still a stupid thread
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:38 PM
If the herd management is based on numbers its a fair question. Rather than look at absolute numbers you really need to compare the trends. Must be plenty of data on roadkill to add to the trendline.
A nifty chart overlaying permit sales by zone would be interesting.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:48 PM
I would assume the numbers that are posted are too high going from what you hear from everyone that does are tagged multiple times in the early season.

Not a stupid thread if someone is genuinely wondering about accuracy. But I'm sure it will turn into a negative, bashing thread.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 3:56 PM
The numbers are harvest fiqures not the mortality rate. The bilogists use these numbers to set bag limits and they add a percentage for poaching, road kills, etc... I dont know where you came up with your estimate of 1 for 1 for harvest vs mortality rates but I dont think it is that high.. I will email the state biologist and find out..
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:24 PM
Quote:
SIR MAYBE YOU SHOULD GO AND ASK THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE TO ENTER ALL THOSE SHEETS BY HAND AND ASK THEM HOW ACCURATE THEY ARE


I was one of those people that tallied the data sheets.  That's not the question.  The question is how many people do not check their deer.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:31 PM
Quote:
My guess would be that for every deer checked in there is 1 deer not checked in and therefore not part of the stats for the state biologists.


I would bet that you are pretty close on that estimate.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:37 PM
1 for 1 ?????????????? Put down the punch. If the #'s are inaccurate then we need to look at ourselves as a whole. For ppl. to be saying "I know for a fact the same doe was checked in multi times is just shame full but what do I expect from my " never rat" brothers.
  BTW now I'm stupid for posting a second time to this stupid thread
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:37 PM
Quote:
This thread is stupid... Get off the Division's back.


How is this thread stupid? Maybe it's stupid because you don't have a good answer?

Quote:
SIR MAYBE YOU SHOULD GO AND ASK THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE TO ENTER ALL THOSE SHEETS BY HAND AND ASK THEM HOW ACCURATE THEY ARE I AM QUITE SURE YOU WILL GET SOME INTERESTING RESPONSES BUT THEN THEY SERVE THE PUBLIC SO THERE ANSWERS MIGHT BE RESTRAINED


GOOD POINT! BUT WHATS WITH THE BOLD AND CAPS?
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:45 PM
Quote:
For ppl. to be saying "I know for a fact the same doe was checked in multi times is just shame full but what do I expect from my " never rat" brothers.

What are you talking about?  I said I know of this happening.  Why is it shameful to say that?
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:47 PM   Last Edited By: BOWHUNTERCOP
Of course guys are shooting a antlerless deer, and passing it off to numerous friends to check in as well.....been happening for years and will continue, until the state gets there act together and has the check in stations spray paint each antlerless deer with some sort of marking.....but the workers at F&G can only do so much, they have there hands tied, until the suits of F&G changes SOPs things will continue to go down hill.....Don't put down the everyday worker of F&G
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:49 PM
Quote:
How is this thread stupid? Maybe it's stupid because you don't have a good answer?


Your right I jumpped the gun. Just give it an hour or two for the F&G bashing to start then reread my post.

Here is what you said
Quote:
I know for a fact that many does are checked in several times


Why would you not do anything about it if you know for a fact that it is being done?
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 4:55 PM   Last Edited By: jkinlan
I would say they are inaccurate numbers, however zone 21 is down 500 plus kills from last year.  Zone 18 another place where I hunt those numbers are done.  I would say they are accurate becaused hunting stunk this year.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 5:02 PM
stash i didnt comment on the people doing the data....the guys checking in deer 2 or 3 times is what i meant...so mind your business
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 5:35 PM
Quote:
Why would you not do anything about it if you know for a fact that it is being done?



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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 5:43 PM
I have been doubting the deer harvest numbers for some time. This because zone 36 consistantly has the same number of deer taken as zone 3 and zone 4. Zone 36 has plenty of deer at: Garret Mountain; High Mountian; South Mountain; Eagle Rock; Ramapo Reservation et al. not to mention private land. However, due to no discharge laws and county park rules there is almost no where to legally hunt in zone 36. Zones 3&4 are loaded with deer and loaded with public hunting property plus there is plenty of private land to hunt.  It just doesn't add up.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 5:53 PM
Quote:
Of course guys are shooting a antlerless deer, and passing it off to numerous friends to check in as well.....been happening for years and will continue, until the state gets there act together and has the check in stations spray paint each antlerless deer with some sort of marking.....

This will continue to happen until EAB is eliminated.  That's the only reason why people do this.

David
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:16 PM
As accurate as they can be with the numbers provided.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:29 PM
Quote:
Zones 3&4 are loaded with deer


Use to be. Zone 3 deer harvest has decreased steadily year by year and is down 30% in the last ten years, I was surprised by the small increase this year. I had expected it to drop below 500 based on the bear activity, hunter grumblings and low number of deer taken in the area that I hunt. I know one thing for sure... there will be at least one less killed next year in zone 3.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:38 PM
This post will really show who's reading comprehension skills are up to par

As for the numbers, I do believe they are off.  Especially with the percentages added on like Beaverkill stated.  That's not concrete evidence, so of course the stats will never be concrete.  All this talk about checking in the same deer multiple times.  What about the many deer that never get checked in?  Either way the numbers will never truely be 100% accurate.  Once you start adding in guestimates, the entire stat sheet becomes a guestimate.

And for you guys that keep calling this thread stupid and keep saying all this stuff, READ!!!  Plain and simple.  Read, think about exactly what you have just read without putting words in the posters mouth.  Then read it all over again.  If you read what is posted, and not what you want to read, you will understand how you are assuming too many things, and how you are blowing things out of proportion.  And don't say wait till later when it does get out of proportion, because if it wasn't for you guys the issue of how good, or bad, the Div is doing wouldn't have even been brought up yet.

And if you are going to call this thread stupid, or how a person should be ashamed of themselves, please explain with details and exampls.  You know it works kinda like those essay questions from back in school.  The test question asks for some info...and then asks you to explain why that info is relevant to your answer.  Zero credit for an answer without any explanations.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:48 PM
Quote:
Why would you not do anything about it if you know for a fact that it is being done?

What possibly would you want to me to do?  Inform the F&W that this behavior is taking place?  Dont you think they already know that?

Should I call a CO and inform him, only to have the deer be butchered by the time anyone responds?  Do you really think anyone would respond?

The logistics of enforcing any violations is a hurdle in and of itself.

EAB was eliminated anyway...its a moot point.

My only reason for bringing it up was to show a possible reason for a disparity in the reported numbers....which was the point of this thread in the first place.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:51 PM
Quote:
This thread is stupid...


There are no stupid threads.  Just stupid people posting in threads.
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:57 PM   Last Edited By: Pernocto
Quote:
What possibly would you want to me to do?  Inform the F&W that this behavior is taking place?  Dont you think they already know that?

Should I call a CO and inform him, only to have the deer be butchered by the time anyone responds?  Do you really think anyone would respond?

The logistics of enforcing any violations is a hurdle in and of itself.

EAB was eliminated anyway...its a moot point.

My only reason for bringing it up was to show a possible reason for a disparity in the reported numbers....which was the point of this thread in the first place.
Chris, you really don't have to respond to anything said earlier.  You never stated that you personally knew specific people who did this.  You just stated that you understood that this behavior takes place and is very common.  If people would learn how to read they would've understood that as well. 

Like I stated ealier:
Quote:
This post will really show who's reading comprehension skills are up to par



And I couldn't agree more with the post above me
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
A.E. Hodgkin, The Archer's Craft, 1951
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 6:58 PM
Too many guys don't bother checking them in,just like turkeys.So how accurate can they be?
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 7:01 PM
Quote:
Too many guys don't bother checking them in,just like turkeys.So how accurate can they be?
100% true....Monday, 2 check stations were closed up where Rich and I hunted, I had to drive to the Greenwood Lake Sporting Goods Store, the butcher I use doesn't ask for a turkey tag, I could of easily not tag that bird, but to me and many of you that is immoral, but there are those that do crap like that