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NJ Hunter / New Jersey Hunting / How To / How accurate are deer harvest stats?
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 7:10 PM   Last Edited By: rackmaster
Quote:
My guess would be that for every deer checked in there is 1 deer not checked in and therefore not part of the stats for the state biologists.


I personally think that is a fair estimate. When you think of poaching, late evening kills and the check station is closed { I favor NY check in system), 'didn't see the antlers', 'thought it had 3 on one side' , looked like they were at least 3 inches long from 30 yards, etc.......
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Posted:  25 Apr 2007 7:27 PM
I would fathom a guess if the state said the 60,000 deer were harvested for the year...its probably more realistically 40k-45k deer
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 7:36 PM
Quote:
if the state said the 60,000 deer were harvested for the year...its probably more realistically 40k-45k deer


How does that work?  If people are not checking deer than there are many more taken than the state reports.
Posted:  25 Apr 2007 8:57 PM
I think the unreported percentage probably stays roughly the same every year.  As does the number of deer killed by cars as a percentage of the population.  So, while the numbers from the F&W check station do not count every deer, they are perfectly valid for trend analysis. 

The only thing that is hard for us is that we don't know how many hunters were in each zone/season and it would take a lot of research to find out how bag limits and season lengths have changed.
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 6:00 AM
870

What I meant was that with EAB...alot of guys are checking in a deer 3 and 4 times. If 1000 guys checked in the same deer twice, that 2000 deer, a thousand more then actually taken...

If a few thousand people did that, which I'm sure they do in EAB zones, the numbers start to add up quick
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 7:08 AM
I would think that there would be less untagged deer
if checking stations stayed open past 7:00.
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 7:22 AM
Quote:
What I meant was that with EAB...alot of guys are checking in a deer 3 and 4 times. If 1000 guys checked in the same deer twice, that 2000 deer, a thousand more then actually taken...

If a few thousand people did that, which I'm sure they do in EAB zones, the numbers start to add up quick

Do you really think there are that many guys with so little self confedance that they can't kill their own doe?
I have heard of this over and over again but I have never met anyone who will admit to doing this, its kind of like the NJ cougars, not saying it has not been done but I do not think the numbers are that great for the amount of guys recycling EAB does.
Perhaps I lead a shelterd life since it is not that hard for me to kill my EAB doe.
Either way the Harvest total is just that the nmber of deer killed by those who play by the rules is totaled up each year.
If you doubt the number of guys who play by the rules or think it varies year by year or you think that those who enter the stats do sloppy work or you feel like the antis do that all hunters are criminals who never play by the rules than I can see how you would doubt the harvest stats.

Me , maybe I'm nieve but I feel for the most part that most guys play by the rules and that % is consistant EAB or no EAB and that those entering the stats do a good job and that the states harvest stats are a resonable total of the leagle deer kill as it goes up and down from year to year.
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 8:03 AM
Quote:
the states harvest stats are a resonable total of the leagle deer kill as it goes up and down from year to year.
I believe the OP was trying to see how close the stats are to the actual deer being harvested(both legally and ilegally).  As for me, I've been hunting for almost 17 years and have never heard of checking in a doe more than once for EAB.  This post was the very first time I've heard of the idea.  Maybe I'm just sheltered from it all because everybody around me doesn't shoot for horns.  We shoot to put meat on the table.
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 8:27 AM
Guys, settle down!

I've been hunting since the late 1980s and my hunting buddy and I often ponder certain things about hunting while sitting on the tailgates of our trucks eating lunch during a break in the day's hunt.  We sometimes ask ourselves why we are not seeing the same number of does that we did the year before?  How come a certain piece of property was producing so well 2 years ago and now there are hardly any deer this year, etc.  And the one question we asked ourselves last December was how many deer do we think get checked-in and how many deer go home un-checked or die from their wounds without being recovered?  That's all.  I thought it would be a good question to ask the forum.  I guess not.  Sorry.

Sorry to start a fire storm.  In no way did I intend to bring the F&G into this other than reference their stats/numbers.  I respect the F&W guys and I am actually very good friends with one of the head biologists at the GSWR.  I thank those guys 100% for enforcing the regs and checking on permits and legal hunting equipment.  They do a great job when I am sure deep in their hearts they wish they weren't on the clock and rather in the woods hunting!
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 8:36 AM
I don't think this thread is stupid at all. I used to think about that when I was checking in deer. It is a good place to start figuring it all out with the numbers from checked deer and coparing them from year to year vs number of licenses sold. I do agree that the actual mortality rate is alot higher then most people think. Farmers that don't report all deer shot on farm permits, yahoos that don't check deer or shoot them at night, bumper fatalities, etc etc. I think 1 to 1 is probably close figure. I Atleast in Warren,Sussex, and some of the rural southern counties. I read through here and don't think anyone was trying to bash division biologists, just posing a question of "I wonder what the real mortality rate would be??"
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 9:16 AM
Quote:
Chris, you really don't have to respond to anything said earlier.  You never stated that you personally knew specific people who did this.  You just stated that you understood that this behavior takes place and is very common.  If people would learn how to read they would've understood that as well. 


Quote:
I know for a fact that many does are checked in several times


Who has the reading problem?
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 12:35 PM
Quote:
870

What I meant was that with EAB...alot of guys are checking in a deer 3 and 4 times. If 1000 guys checked in the same deer twice, that 2000 deer, a thousand more then actually taken...


If that is the case then the check station is not doing the job it was paid to do every doe that is checked in must have the tage placed in I beleive the right ear and the buck gets placed in the hock if the ear is cut that may be a clue that thedeer may have been checked in at another station. I remember a tread back in the fall where the pimply face kid did not tag a deer but gave it to the hunter to do so and that was a hot topic on this site till the C O stopped at the check station and brought it to the attention of the owner and he was read the riot act about how to tag deer after that he came on this site and said he was going to do everything by the rules.
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 1:07 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Chris, you really don't have to respond to anything said earlier.  You never stated that you personally knew specific people who did this.  You just stated that you understood that this behavior takes place and is very common.  If people would learn how to read they would've understood that as well. 



Quote:
I know for a fact that many does are checked in several times



Who has the reading problem?



I know for a fact that waiters who are supposed to pool their tips with their co-workers do not pool 100% of their tips.  I do not work in a restaurant, but do know for a fact that this occurs.  Same deal with the deer.  He said he knows for a fact that this action of does being checked in on multiple occasions happens.  He did not say he knows people that do it.  He only mentions that he knows that this idea is true.
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
A.E. Hodgkin, The Archer's Craft, 1951
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 1:10 PM
You could also say that I know for a fact that some students cheat in school.  I do not go to school.  I do not know anybody who is going to school.  But I know for a fact that some students are cheating in school.

So if I stated that I know for a fact that some students cheat in school, why would you assume that I know somebody specifically who does?
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
A.E. Hodgkin, The Archer's Craft, 1951
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 1:16 PM
There are several reasons but my honest answer is NO THERE NOT
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 1:30 PM
Quote:
I know for a fact that waiters who are supposed to pool their tips with their co-workers do not pool 100% of their tips.  I do not work in a restaurant, but do know for a fact that this occurs



This is what most (notice I said MOST) of us call a "know it all". You have never done it your self or even see it happen but yet you still "know it for fact" that it happens.
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 2:12 PM
Operation Game Theif
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 2:30 PM   Last Edited By: rackmaster
Two years ago a portion of zone 6 (QDM) was rezoned to zone 36 (EAB). Now, I use to occaisionally hunt that portion of zone 3 that was rezoned. If I shot a buck first in 36 all I would have to do is get it in the truck, drive to the same check in station and report it as a zone 3 or zone 6 kill. Zones 3,6, and 36 all border each other and many deer from these zones would be checked in at the same locations. Maybe that explains the increase in the zone 3 kill this year, in spite of what I have seen in the woods and heard from fellow hunters.
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Posted:  26 Apr 2007 4:46 PM
Quote:
This is what most (notice I said MOST) of us call a "know it all". You have never done it your self or even see it happen but yet you still "know it for fact" that it happens.
You ever think that I may have done it or seen it done in the past?  Just like he may have seen people in the past double check in a doe.  People move on.  But the situations stay the same.  FACT is that I USED to be a waiter.  I used to be a student.  I've known people who have done both (cheat and steal).  Fact is that I do not know them now.  But cheating and stealing are still active. 

I would guess Chris used to know people that do this.  I would guess he does not hang around with them at all or all too often anymore.  But he knows that those people are not the only poachers doing that deed.  And he knows that this stuff is still going on.  Just like I know waiters are still stealing from the tip jar, and students are still cheating on their spelling tests.

Once you do something that benefits you(legally or illegally) without having to deal with any repurcussions, why would you stop doing that before you got caught?



And for the stats, how do they come up with the percentages for the deer that die from poaching, accidents, and natural predation?  I'm very curious as to how they get them.
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
A.E. Hodgkin, The Archer's Craft, 1951
Posted:  26 Apr 2007 4:48 PM
Quote:
Two years ago a portion of zone 6 (QDM) was rezoned to zone 36 (EAB). Now, I use to occaisionally hunt that portion of zone 3 that was rezoned. If I shot a buck first in 36 all I would have to do is get it in the truck, drive to the same check in station and report it as a zone 3 or zone 6 kill. Zones 3,6, and 36 all border each other and many deer from these zones would be checked in at the same locations. Maybe that explains the increase in the zone 3 kill this year, in spite of what I have seen in the woods and heard from fellow hunters.
I would not doubt that theory.  Anything to get a buck(pun intended)
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Here (risking your wry and deprecatory look) is the point of the whole matter.  All that we have considered hitherto is but the vehicle. When, by a combination of good shooting and good fortune, you land your arrow in the mark let it be one that carries a head fit for its task.       
A.E. Hodgkin, The Archer's Craft, 1951
Posted:  27 Apr 2007 9:24 AM
Quote:
What I meant was that with EAB...alot of guys are checking in a deer 3 and 4 times.


Hmmmmmmm....and you would definitely know this!
Posted:  27 Apr 2007 11:45 AM
Quote:
alot of guys are checking in a deer 3 and 4 times.

Quote:
people are not checking deer


Maybe these two groups balance each other out and the harvest records are 100% accurate.